Opinion: Lok Sabha Polls: Will Telangana Boost BJP's Tally In South?

Telangana, the second of the two Telugu-speaking states, heads to the polls on May 13, offering the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) another chance to send representatives from Southern India to the 18th Lok Sabha. Beyond its southern stronghold of Karnataka, the BJP secured an impressive four out of the total 17 seats in Telangana in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This was achieved by finishing as a runner-up and limiting the regional Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS, formerly Telangana Rashtra Samiti) to a single-digit tally, thus limiting the party's grip on the state since the formation of Telangana in 2014.

After a setback in the December 2023 assembly elections, the BJP has re-emerged as the principal challenger to the Congress party, which secured the mandate to govern the state under the leadership of Chief Minister Revanth Reddy. Conversely, after facing rejection by the people and concluding a decade-long tenure in office, the BRS and its leader, K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR), are hoping to regain some of their lost prestige in Telangana. Effectively, the contest for the 17 seats should be seen as triangular, though with few exceptions - especially the high-profile Hyderabad constituency.

Advantage Incumbency?

Revanth Reddy, who led the Congress party to victory in the December assembly elections, faces the test of delivering and raising his party's Lok Sabha tally in the state from the current three. The Congress campaign spotlight is on the party's commitment to implementing the five guarantees. Despite financial constraints, the state government has managed to fulfil four of the six guarantees it promised.

Among the schemes that have gained traction is the free bus ride programme for women. According to official estimates, approximately 30 lakh beneficiaries avail of this facility every month, resulting in an estimated saving of Rs 1,150 crore for women since the scheme's implementation in December. The free bus travel experience may also be expanded with the Indian National Congress promising 'Nari Nyay', under which it will provide Rs 1 Lakh annually for women belonging to poorer sections. There are four other promises on offer: Rs 1 lakh for educated youth through employment opportunities, loan waiver for farmers, Rs 400 per day minimum wage, and a caste census for better targeting of welfare schemes.

Read | In Telangana, KCR's Leaders Swell Congress, BJP Ranks Ahead of Polls

Not limiting itself to mere delivery and promises, the Congress has also not shied away from fielding candidates who defected from other parties. Among them are Ranjit Reddy, Danam Nagender, and P. Dayakar, all of whom underwent a Ghar Wapasi (homecoming). Conversely, the BJP has imported candidates from the BRS.

BJP's Strategy

After the loss of momentum it witnessed during the assembly polls under its former state chief Bandi Sanjay, the BJP is now striving to bolster its national campaign to make way for a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Unlike in 2014, when the state voted as a single entity and gave a majority of the nine seats to the BRS, the BJP's objective now is to secure seats in double digits.

A concerted effort to build on its nearly 20% vote share in 2019 has seen the BJP leadership, including PM Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, dedicating time to campaign for party candidates. In addition to emphasising issues such as the Congress's alleged favouring of minorities at the expense of others, campaigners are out to confront the perception that the Abki Baar 400-paar slogan signifies an intention to alter the Constitution and abolish reservations for Scheduled Castes/Tribes. As a rebuttal, the campaign is focusing on 'Modi ki Guarantee' (Modi's guarantee), highlighting how welfare schemes have benefited all without discrimination.

BRS's Challenges

For former chief minister KCR, who was a staunch advocate of a separate state, the Lok Sabha polls present an opportunity to remind the people of his contributions. In addition to his son K.T. Rama Rao and nephew T. Harish Rao, BRS leaders are working to energise their cadres even as K. Kavitha, KCR's daughter, remains in custody for an alleged involvement in the Delhi liquor scam.

Read | Opinion: The Remarkable Congress Turnaround In Telangana

The current elections come just five months after the assembly polls, and the BRS is hoping that public anger against it must have subsided by now, allowing it to gradually regain its influence. However, the flip side is that people also recognise the limited role the BRS would have in Delhi given its relationships with the two key national parties, the BJP and the Congress.

Hyderabad: A Charminar Contest

With significant portions of the old city constituting part of the Hyderabad seat, the area is poised for a quadrangular contest. Sitting MP Asaduddin Owaisi of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) will be defending the seat - previously held by his father Sultan Salahuddin Owaisi - for a fifth term.

Owaisi, who secured nearly 59% votes last time, is being challenged by the BJP through a debutant businesswoman and social worker, Kompella Madhavi Latha. The Congress, meanwhile, has fielded Mohammed Wallullah Sameer, and Gaddam Srinivas Yadav is the BRS candidate there.

Now, it's over to the 3.3 crore-strong electorate of Telangana.

(K.V. Prasad is a senior Delhi-based journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

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