Opinion: Is India Ready To Go All-EV By 2034? Absolutely Not

A few days ago, Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari made a startling announcement: the Union Government plans to eliminate petrol and diesel vehicles by 2034, replacing them primarily with electric vehicles (EVs). This bold move, touted as a step toward reducing carbon emissions and achieving climate goals, could lead India into a crisis of epic proportions if not meticulously planned and executed. The hidden carbon footprint of EVs, the inadequacy of our renewable energy infrastructure, the strain on our power grid and the economic and geopolitical ramifications, all paint a grim picture of a policy that could backfire disastrously.

2.5 Times Petrol Or Diesel

The electricity required to charge EVs often comes from coal-based power plants, which are major carbon emitters. As per an analysis, which used the Tata Nexon as a benchmark (assuming an 80% charging efficiency, our current energy mix, 33% efficiency of a coal power plant, and approximately 15% transmission loss on the grid), charging the 40.5 kWh battery of the Nexon EV Max would require approximately 26.7 kg of coal. This is 2.5 times the petrol or diesel needed for the same distance. 

It's Not So Bad After All

It's true that EVs generally have higher emissions during the production phase compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This is due to the energy-intensive process of battery manufacturing. For instance, producing a medium-sized EV typically results in about 15-68% more emissions than producing a comparable gasoline car. However, over their lifetime, EVs produce significantly fewer emissions than ICEVs, primarily due to the elimination of tailpipe emissions. In countries with a high share of renewable energy, EVs can reduce emissions by up to 70-90% compared to ICEVs. In areas heavily reliant on coal, EVs still typically result in lower overall emissions compared to gasoline or diesel vehicles. 

When accounting for the entire supply chain, including electricity generation (well-to-wheel analysis), the reduction in emissions varies but can range from 30-60% depending on the region's energy sources. According to the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), an average EV in Europe is responsible for 66-69% less greenhouse gas emissions over its lifetime compared to an average gasoline car, considering the current energy mix. In the U.S., an EV charged using the national average electricity mix emits about half as much CO2 per mile as a typical new gasoline car. 
As the share of renewable energy increases in electricity grids worldwide, the emissions associated with EVs will continue to decrease, to nearly zero if the grid were 100% renewable.

While India has made significant progress in renewable energy, with solar and wind contributing 19% and 10% respectively to the total installed capacity, their intermittent nature means they cannot reliably meet the demand for EV charging, which often occurs overnight. As a result, we will likely need to rely more on coal-based power, which currently generates about 76% of our electricity.

Transitioning to an all-EV future by 2034 will require doubling our power generation capacity. However, the government's current plan is to add 517 GW by 2032, which seems unlikely. Over the past nine years, we've only added 139.62 GW. Additionally, our power grid, which already struggles to meet current demands, will need extensive upgrades. This includes doubling the number of transformers, feeders, and transmission lines to prevent frequent power cuts.

Economic and Geopolitical Implications

India's transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is not just about reducing carbon emissions, it also involves complex economic and geopolitical factors. While decreasing reliance on crude oil imports is a valid goal, India also imports significant amounts of coal, and shifting to EVs will merely shift dependency from oil to coal and critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. These minerals are mainly sourced from countries like China, which introduces new strategic risks given India's strained relations with China.

The global EV supply chain is susceptible to geopolitical instability and trade disputes. To mitigate these risks, India is forming international alliances and partnerships with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia. These collaborations aim to diversify supply sources, promote technological exchange, and enhance energy security. Economically, reducing oil imports might improve India's current account deficits, but increased imports of critical minerals and high-tech components could offset these gains. The domestic EV industry also faces challenges in competing with established global players, potentially leading to job losses and economic instability. Therefore, strategic policies are needed to support local industries and ensure sustainable economic growth.

Additionally, India's move to EVs will impact global energy markets by potentially reducing oil demand, affecting oil prices, and altering trade dynamics. Achieving strategic autonomy in the EV sector is crucial for national security and requires investment in research and development, robust domestic supply chains, and innovation. A comprehensive strategy addressing supply chain vulnerabilities and fostering international partnerships is essential to enhance India's energy security and leadership in sustainable energy.

The Lure Of Subsidies

Consumer interest in EVs is largely driven by heavy subsidies. The Central government has invested thousands of crores in these subsidies and state governments have lost significant revenue by offering low GST and road tax for EVs. Additionally, the lower untaxed cost of coal for charging makes EVs seem cheaper compared to heavily taxed petrol. However, the actual price of EVs remains high without these subsidies.

India currently lacks the infrastructure for large-scale battery production, recycling, and disposal, posing significant environmental and logistical challenges. Though advances in battery recycling technologies are expected to reduce the environmental impact of battery production in the future, given the current complexities with EVs, we should probably take the middle road. A more pragmatic approach would be to promote hybrid vehicles in the transition period, which offer better fuel efficiency and lower emissions without the need for massive infrastructure overhauls. Reducing taxes on hybrids could make them more appealing to consumers without the need for substantial subsidies. Currently, petrol and diesel vehicles are subject to high taxation, and hybrid vehicles are taxed at the same rate. This doesn't make sense.

We must also be patient until other countries address the problem on a large scale. Larger economies have the luxury of experimenting and absorbing financial losses.

Until India builds up its innovation capacity and relevant industrial capabilities, it would be foolhardy to rush with policy. It must balance the need to reduce carbon emissions with the practical challenges of energy production, infrastructure readiness, and economic viability.

(Arindam Goswami is a Research Scholar at Takshashila Institution, working in the High-Tech Geopolitics Programme)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

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